237
FXUS65 KVEF 100546
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1046 PM PDT MON JUN 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS HEATRISK
RISES TO THE MAJOR CATEGORY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. DRY, BREEZY, AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED EARLY THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED,
WITH A FEW LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL IDENTIFIABLE. NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MAIN STORY OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS THE BUILDING HEAT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH
ANOTHER INCREASE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HEAT TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS FOR THE GENERAL POPULATION IN AREAS SUCH AS LAS VEGAS,
PAHRUMP, LAUGHLIN, DEATH VALLEY AND BARSTOW. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATION THROUGH 11PM TUESDAY.
THE ONLY OTHER WEATHER OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NW ARIZONA. THESE
WILL BE DRIVEN BY RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MOUNTAIN
CIRCULATIONS, THUS CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH CAN EMANATE WELL AWAY FROM THE SOURCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE IN THE EVENINGS AS WE LOSE SURFACE
HEATING WITH THE SETTING SUN.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MID-WEEK, TROUGHING BEGINS TO ERODE AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THIS ACTS TO BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPTICK IN WINDS WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF COOLING, AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP 2-5 DEGREES FROM
THEIR PEAK ON TUESDAY, BUT ENOUGH TO BRING HEATRISK BACK INTO THE
MODERATE CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL ALSO
SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE, BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN TERMS OF THE WINDS THEMSELVES, GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD DURING THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
POTENTIAL FOR WIND IMPACTS IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH BEST ODDS
(~60%) ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND 30-40% OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL SETTLE INTO THEIR TYPICAL OVERNIGHT PATTERNS IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO, LAS AND HND FAVORING THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THEN VGT WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND WITH SPEEDS AT 8KT OR LESS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z WHEN THERE IS A 30%-
50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 20KT. WINDS AT LAS MAY BRIEFLY BE
SOUTHEAST INSTEAD OF SOUTH AT 22Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE
BEFORE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AROUND 00Z.
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 100F 19Z-04Z TUESDAY. LESS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NOT EXPECTING
ANY ERRATIC OUTFLOWS OR PRECIPITATION WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL PATTERNS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION OWN
THAT CONVECTION HAS WANED. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 15-25KT
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING AT OR
ABOVE 10KFT. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, ESPECIALLY IN LINCOLN COUNTY, BUT WILL
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND LESS IMPACTFUL COMPARED TO TODAY. BREEZY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX MON, JUN 9 TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 111(1985) 109(2022)* 109(2022)*
BISHOP 104(2013) 103(2022)* 104(2022)
NEEDLES 118(1955) 121(1910) 122(1918)
DAGGETT 110(1985) 110(1994)* 110(2022)
KINGMAN 106(1955) 109(1921) 107(1918)
DESERT ROCK 105(2013) 104(2022)* 105(2022)
DEATH VALLEY 126(2013) 125(2013) 122(2022)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN MON, JUN 9 TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 86(2016) 84(2014)* 89(2022)
BISHOP 61(2010)* 65(1985) 62(1973)
NEEDLES 87(2022) 88(1902) 90(2022)
DAGGETT 77(2014)* 77(2014)* 80(2022)*
KINGMAN 76(1978) 76(1955) 74(1921)
DESERT ROCK 86(2016) 79(2016) 83(2022)
DEATH VALLEY 96(2013) 92(2016)* 94(2022)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...MORGAN
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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