056
FXUS65 KVEF 101720 CCA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1020 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
DANGEROUS HEAT PEAKS IN INTENSITY TODAY AS HEATRISK
RISES TO THE MAJOR CATEGORY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. DRY, BREEZY,
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
UPDATE
ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH 10PM THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NEVADA
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MAINLY ESMERALDA, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NYE, AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN,
BUT THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MUCH LIKE MONDAY, LOW GRADE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS A LITTLE REDUCED COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, BRIEF RAIN, AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO FAVOR LINCOLN
COUNTY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. THE HEAT LOOKS TO PEAK TODAY
WITH MAJOR HEAT RISK ADVERTISED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT
INCLUDING LAS VEGAS, LAKE MEAD, DEATH VALLEY, AND BARSTOW. AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP IN
TOMORROW WITH A VERY MODEST DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING EXPECTED
ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING
CENTERED OVER AZ/NM/MX AND SOME FLAVOR OF TROUGHING ALONG THE
WEST COAST/PACIFIC NW, RESULTING IN PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER, TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE, AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
AT THIS TIME, WINDS LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
AND HEATRISK IS PRIMARILY MODERATE WITH ONLY SPLOTCHES OF MAJOR
SHOWING UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH ALL THIS SAID, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS TO
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS, SUCH AS THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING OR
WHO HAVE TO REMAIN OUTSIDE FOR LONG PERIODS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM AROUND 20Z TO 23Z BEFORE TURNING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS PERIOD OF
SOUTHEAST WINDS, AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS, AND WINDS MAY
SHIFT DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF
THE ABOVE, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY 00Z, AND GUSTS TO
23 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS IS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL RETURN BY MID-MORNING
TOMORROW. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN TODAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY, AND THE CHANCE OF AN OUTFLOW REACHING THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON IS MINIMAL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD, AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100F FROM
19Z THROUGH 04Z, WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 108F EXPECTED AROUND
00Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONDITIONS AT THE LAS
VEGAS AREA TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED ABOVE FOR
HARRY REID. ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND OVER THE NORTHERN WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE SIERRA IS
EXPECTED AT KBIH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS AT
THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, CIGS AROUND 8KFT AGL AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AREAS OF CONVECTION.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 109(2022)* 109(2022)*
BISHOP 103(2022)* 104(2022)
NEEDLES 121(1910) 122(1918)
DAGGETT 110(1994)* 110(2022)
KINGMAN 109(1921) 107(1918)
DESERT ROCK 104(2022)* 105(2022)
DEATH VALLEY 125(2013) 122(2022)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...GORELOW
CLIMATE...SOULAT
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