985
FXUS65 KVEF 110542
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1041 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
DANGEROUS HEAT PEAKS IN INTENSITY TODAY AS HEATRISK
RISES TO THE MAJOR CATEGORY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK,
SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY WILL
ALSO BE THE LAST DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA
AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE
THERE WAS MUCH LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO MONDAY, AND WHAT STORMS THERE WERE HAVE FIZZLED.
FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD, SO NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE EXTREME HEAT TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL WEAKEN AS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE OF AROUND 150-200
PERCENT IS STILL HANGING AROUND CENTRAL NEVADA AND WITH THE ADDED
INSTABILITY WE HAVE SEEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO EXTENDING INTO ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN,
BUT THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL USHER IN A
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LOWER THE ANONYMOUSLY HIGH
PWS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH PUT AN END TO THE
DAILY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE TROUGH, WE CAN EXPECTED TO
SEE HEIGHTS FALLING JUST A BIT, BUT WITH INCREASED MIXING WE ARE
ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES. THE
HEATRISK WILL DROP FROM MAJOR FOR MANY LOCATIONS TODAY DOWN TO
MODERATE FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES AROUND 25 TO 35
MPH. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS, IT WILL BRING INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TO THE REGION.
LUCKILY, MOST OF THE FUELS ARE NOT IN THE CRITICAL CATEGORY AND FIRE
HEADLINES ARE ALSO NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING
CENTERED OVER AZ/NM/MX AND SOME FLAVOR OF TROUGHING ALONG THE
WEST COAST/PACIFIC NW, RESULTING IN PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER, TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE, AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
AT THIS TIME, WINDS LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
AND HEATRISK IS PRIMARILY MODERATE WITH ONLY SPLOTCHES OF MAJOR
SHOWING UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH ALL THIS SAID, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS TO
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS, SUCH AS THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING OR
WHO HAVE TO REMAIN OUTSIDE FOR LONG PERIODS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
THIS EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED WITH GUSTS ENDING AND SPEEDS GENERALLY
HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 8KT ACROSS THE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8KT, HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE A FEW MORE UPTICKS IN SPEED TO 10KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT UNTIL 09Z. AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS WEDNESDAY EARLY
MORNING, INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT
A BIT STRONGER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (30%) FOR GUSTS OVER 30KT FROM
WEDNESDAY 21Z THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 03Z, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH HOWEVER
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100F BETWEEN 19Z AND 04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL OVERNIGHT PATTERNS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS AT
KDAG SHOULD END AT KDAG AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. SIMILAR WIND PATTERNS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY COMPARED TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20-30KT IN THE AFTERNOON IN MANY
LOCATIONS. KBIH WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS UNTIL AFTER 21Z WHEN A PUSH OF
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH AND GUST 25-30KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 109(2022)* 109(2022)*
BISHOP 103(2022)* 104(2022)
NEEDLES 121(1910) 122(1918)
DAGGETT 110(1994)* 110(2022)
KINGMAN 109(1921) 107(1918)
DESERT ROCK 104(2022)* 105(2022)
DEATH VALLEY 125(2013) 122(2022)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...NICKERSON
CLIMATE...SOULAT
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