328
FXUS65 KVEF 111155
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
455 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL NUDGE
OUR SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY, RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN REGIONAL HEIGHTS AND AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY SUBTLE COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, PERHAPS MINIMIZED SLIGHTLY THANKS TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING. NONETHELESS, ANTICIPATE HIGHS TODAY
BEING 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL
DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON, SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS BOTH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S MODELS AND GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PERIOD. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF FAR
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, WHICH WILL GIVE OUR AREA 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DAM PLUS DEEP MIXING DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, RESULTING
IN DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS ONE CLUSTER OF MODELS SHOWS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT REACHES THE WEST COAST, WHICH WOULD
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT, WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHALLOWER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW, WHICH
WOULD MEAN LESS WIND AND LESS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. THE FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE SHALLOWER LOW SINCE IT IS FEATURED IN A MAJORITY
OF THE SOLUTIONS, BUT THE DEEPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN OFF THIS MORNING, BUT CAN STILL EXPECT
AN OCCASIONAL GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THROUGH THE LATE-MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SOUTHWEST GUSTS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED AND FREQUENCY, PEAKING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS. LIKE
LAST NIGHT, GUSTS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST OCCASIONAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE TAF. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 18 AND 04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AND FREQUENCY
THROUGH THE LATE-MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
SPEEDS PEAKING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS. KBIH AND KDAG WILL FAVOR A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WHILE KIFP AND KEED WILL FAVOR A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, THOUGH TIMING AND SPEEDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAS
VEGAS VALLEY SITES. GUSTS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET,
BUT WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX WED, JUN 11
RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 109(2022)*
BISHOP 104(2022)
NEEDLES 122(1918)
DAGGETT 110(2022)*
KINGMAN 107(1918)
DESERT ROCK 105(2022)
DEATH VALLEY 122(2022)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...SOULAT
CLIMATE...SOULAT
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