364
FXUS65 KVEF 111704
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1004 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
UPDATE
NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HEATRISK LARGELY IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY
WHILE AFTERNOON WINDS GUST 20-35 MPH. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 5%
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL NUDGE
OUR SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY, RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN REGIONAL HEIGHTS AND AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY SUBTLE COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, PERHAPS MINIMIZED SLIGHTLY THANKS TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING. NONETHELESS, ANTICIPATE HIGHS TODAY
BEING 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL
DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON, SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS BOTH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S MODELS AND GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PERIOD. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF FAR
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, WHICH WILL GIVE OUR AREA 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DAM PLUS DEEP MIXING DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, RESULTING
IN DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS ONE CLUSTER OF MODELS SHOWS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT REACHES THE WEST COAST, WHICH WOULD
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT, WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHALLOWER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW, WHICH
WOULD MEAN LESS WIND AND LESS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. THE FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE SHALLOWER LOW SINCE IT IS FEATURED IN A MAJORITY
OF THE SOLUTIONS, BUT THE DEEPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, STRONGEST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. GUSTS GENERALLY 20-
25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 100F BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z, WITH A PEAK VALUE
AROUND 106F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY WINDS RESUME TODAY WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET BUT MAINTAIN THEIR DIRECTIONS EXCEPT AT KBIH WHERE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX WED, JUN 11
RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 109(2022)*
BISHOP 104(2022)
NEEDLES 122(1918)
DAGGETT 110(2022)
KINGMAN 107(1918)
DESERT ROCK 105(2022)
DEATH VALLEY 122(2022)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...WOODS
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...WOODS
CLIMATE...SOULAT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page