452
FXUS65 KVEF 151011
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
306 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAKING TODAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM TODAY.
* BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON, PEAKING
ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM MONDAY.
* BREEZY WINDS PEAK ONCE AGAIN LATE-WEEK AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT
TODAY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM FOR WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, DEATH
VALLEY NATIONAL PARK, LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK COUNTY, FAR SOUTHERN
NYE COUNTY, SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY, AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
(INCLUDING THE LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA). THOSE SPENDING
TIME OUTDOORS TODAY ARE ENCOURAGED TO STICK TO THE COOLER PARTS OF
THE DAY, BRING EXTRA WATER & ELECTROLYTES, AND AVOID HEAVY MEALS
BEFORE HEADING OUTDOORS. "MAJOR" HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 ON A SCALE FROM 0
TO 4) WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
"MODERATE" HEATRISK ELSEWHERE. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. AS A RESULT OF THIS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK.
TO EXACERBATE WIND SPEEDS, A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 30
TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, OWENS VALLEY, AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE). THERE IS A
30-50% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED GUST TO 40 MPH, BUT THESE WILL BE
ISOLATED IN SPACE AND TIME, SO OPTED OUT OF A WIND ADVISORY. THESE
WINDS COUPLED WITH BONE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS, SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FROM 12 PM TO 8
PM ON MONDAY, AS A RESULT. FIND THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LATE-WEEK, ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE GULF OF ALASKA CLOSED LOW
WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE NORTHERN
MEXICO HIGH, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY,
RESULTING IN STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THE LOW'S ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA, ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO FALL AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.
FIRE WEATHER
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
ON MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA (ZONES 462, 464, 465, 466) AND
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA (ZONES 101, 102). A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH
IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, OWENS VALLEY, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S DAY 2 FIRE
WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS HIGHLIGHTED CLARK COUNTY, NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY, AND WASHINGTON COUNTY AS "CRITICAL". INCREASED RISK OF
WILDFIRE STARTS AND SPREADS IS A RESULT OF THESE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS COUPLED WITH SINGLE-DIGIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES (5-15%). SUBSEQUENT DAYS HAVE LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS AND MARGINALLY IMPROVED OVERNIGHT RHS. BE SURE TO SAFELY
DISPOSE OF CIGARETTE BUTTS, AVOID ACTIVITIES WITH SPARKS OR FLAMES
(CAMP FIRES, TARGET PRACTICE, FIREWORKS), AND REPORT ANY FIRE STARTS
TO LOCAL OFFICIALS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH BREEZY 15 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS PICKING UP IN THE LATER
THIS MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 19Z TO 04Z, PEAKING
AROUND 108 DEGREES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT
FILTERING THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT LATE
SUNDAY MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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