015
FXUS65 KVEF 012119
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
219 PM PDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* FINAL DAY OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK, AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
* LIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NYE, LINCOLN, CLARK, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES.
* THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE WETTING RAIN,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE FINAL DAY OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OF NOTE, CLOUD COVER OVER
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DAMPENED THE POTENTIAL FOR
108 DEGREES (MAX TEMP FORECAST), WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH SO FAR TODAY
AROUND 100 DEGREES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED MOISTURE - BOTH OF
WHICH WILL WORK TO REDUCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT-OR-SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN A GROWING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE-NORMAL.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IS HELPING TO USHER
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN INCOMING PACIFIC LOW UP THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
1.00" IN EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, SOUTHERN CLARK, AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS, DCAPE IS BETWEEN 1500
AND 1800 J/KG ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SO FAR TODAY, VIRGA SHOWERS
OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY PRODUCED SEVERAL GUSTS OVER 58 MPH,
WARRANTING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS
LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
INTO LINCOLN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PRODUCE
MORE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY, AS MOISTURE SATURATES THE
COLUMN. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THURSDAY ONWARD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY GROWS OVER THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NYE,
LINCOLN, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE WETTING RAINS
(0.10 INCHES). AS SUCH, DRY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS POSES A WILDFIRE
THREAT. MEANWHILE, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS ESMERALDA COUNTY COUPLED
WITH SINGLE-DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS OUT
FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEVADA FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 460, 461, AND 462 AND FOR ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 101
THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERNS FOR 461, 462, AND 101 WILL BE
DRY LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERNS FOR 101 WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH SINGLE-DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ESMERALDA, INYO, AND SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL PEAK IN CENTRAL NYE,
LINCOLN, CLARK, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY BEFORE DWINDLING
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WIDESPREAD SINGLE-DIGIT RH EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... COUPLED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIREWORK
ACTIVITY WILL ELEVATE WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CANNOT WRITE OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR AWW-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 21Z, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING TO 30% AFTER 21Z. WINDS ARE BREEZY AND SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY. CAN EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BEFORE THEY SHIFT SOUTHWEST AROUND 21Z. EXPECT A SOUTHEAST PUSH OF
GUSTS AROUND SUNSET FROM STORMS IN ARIZONA BEFORE WINDS CALM
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH SCT-BKN AOA 12
KFT. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 19Z-04Z, WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 107 DEGREES AROUND 23Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CANNOT WRITE OFF
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE THROUGH 21Z, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING TO 30% AFTER 21Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AN
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN ARIZONA THAT WILL BRIEFLY ELEVATE WINDS
AROUND SUNSET... FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF
SITES AND FROM THE EAST AT KIFP. WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH SCT-BKN AOA 12KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...SOULAT
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