115
FXUS65 KVEF 031724
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1024 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ONE MORE DAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN.
* DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
FRIDAY.
* WARMING TREND EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH MAJOR HEAT RISK RETURNING
BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH ONGOING
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FUELED BY FAIRLY STRONG FORCING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, STAYING MAINLY EAST OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO EVEN INTO THE METRO AREA,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SIDE.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD MIDDAY TOMORROW,
WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS LINCOLN, CLARK, AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES, THOUGH ACTIVITY IS FAVORED FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY
(THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON) BEFORE DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN AND
STABILITY INCREASES BY THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
BY FRIDAY, DRIER AIR WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD A
BELT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA.
GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED, AND DRY STATE OF
REGIONAL GRASSES AND VEGETATION, FIRE DANGER WILL BE QUITE
ELEVATED. THERE IS ALSO THE CONSIDERATION THAT IT WILL BE THE 4TH
OF JULY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY
WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
AFTER TEMPS HOVER SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, A LARGE AND DOMINANT RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING,
WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK ADVERTISED BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO TRANSLATE TO 110+ HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT INCLUDING LAS VEGAS, AND 120+ WITHIN THE
LOWER REACHES OF DEATH VALLEY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...A COMPLEX AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ON TAP WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 19Z-23Z
TIMEFRAME. EVEN IF STORMS DON'T DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL,
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
BEYOND 00Z, LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR
MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL, WITH A RETURN OF A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND
PATTERN. WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TO RIGHT AROUND 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...KHND AND KVGT WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE 19Z-23Z TIMEFRAME,
ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. AFTER 00Z, ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AND/OR MOVE EAST OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY TO RESUME BEFORE
DECREASING BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS,
NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS TO GENERALLY FOLLOW
SOMEWHAT DIURNAL PATTERN WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...OUTLER
AVIATION...AUSTIN
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