011
FXUS65 KVEF 111151
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
451 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRES WILL RESULT IN HAZY SKIES AT TIMES TODAY
AND SATURDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD SMOKE IMPACTS NEAR
THE SURFACE ARE NOT EXPECTED.
* HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE SIGNIFICANT
ADVECTION OF SMOKE FROM FIRES IN NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE
HRRR SHOWS HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH, BUT NO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OF SIGNIFICANT
NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE FAR FROM THE ACTUAL FIRES. EXPECT HAZY SKIES AT
TIMES TODAY AND SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. THE HOTTEST DAYS SHOULD BE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WHEN HEIGHTS REACH +1.0 TO +1.5 SIGMAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OR 4) HEATRISK IS FORECASTED THIS WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEATRISK IN THE
DESERT VALLEYS OF INYO COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY. ANYONE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HOT TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT AND WEAKEN NEXT WEEK AFTER MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A BIT EACH DAY IN RESPONSE. IN ADDITION,
ON TUESDAY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. THIS MOISTURE
WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION BUT WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES
AND ALSO REDUCE ANY FIRE DANGER DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS. ON
WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS NOW NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY OR LATER WHEN BETTER MOISTURE AND AN
EASTERLY SHORTWAVE COULD BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
LONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST, BUT EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8-10KT. INTERMITTENT
THERMALLY-INDUCED HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15-18KT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST,
REMAINING ELEVATED UNTIL DAYBREAK. THE PRIMARY CONCERN ASIDE FROM
WINDS WILL BE POTENTIAL VISUAL OBSCURATIONS EARLY EVENING INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO SMOKE/HAZE FROM A WILDFIRE IN NYE COUNTY. MOST
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOFTED, THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED CLOUD
LAYERS AT 050 AND 120 TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE ADVECTION, WITH NO
CLOUDS EXPECTED OTHERWISE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100F BETWEEN
19Z-05Z, PEAKING AT 108F AROUND 00Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS LAS VEGAS VALLEY TERMINALS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AS WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM NYE COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE MOST SMOKE WILL REMAIN
LOFTED, PRODUCING SOME VISUAL OBSCURATIONS, HAVE INCLUDED CLOUD
LAYERS AT 050 AND 120 TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE SMOKE AT LOWER
LEVELS. OTHERWISE, WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE, ELEVATED AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST, AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OWENS
VALLEY AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPVALLEY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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