470
FXUS65 KVEF 112012
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
110 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRES WILL RESULT IN HAZY SKIES AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD SMOKE IMPACTS NEAR THE
SURFACE ARE NOT EXPECTED.
* HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING MONDAY AS RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
* MONSOON MOISTURE MAKES A POSSIBLE RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH A DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING MONDAY. HEATRISK IS MOSTLY IN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2)
SATURDAY, BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE MORE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR
(LEVEL 3) ON SUNDAY. HEATRISK ON MONDAY SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF MAJOR (LEVEL 4) WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL; HOWEVER, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF RECORD VALUES. AT THIS POINT, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT
WARNINGS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS VARIOUS
FIRES BURN ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT. THE GOTHIC FIRE LOCATED IN CENTRAL NYE COUNTY IS THE LARGEST
FIRE AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF OUR HAZY CONDITIONS. SO
FAR TODAY, SMOKE PRODUCTION HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON IF ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PLUME GETS GENERATED.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT AND WEAKEN NEXT WEEK AFTER MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A BIT EACH DAY IN RESPONSE. IN ADDITION,
ON TUESDAY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. THIS MOISTURE
WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION BUT WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES
AND ALSO REDUCE ANY FIRE DANGER DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS. ON
WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS NOW NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY OR LATER WHEN BETTER MOISTURE AND AN
EASTERLY SHORTWAVE COULD BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER 7KTS. WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 23Z 8-10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
15KTS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE WINDS SETTLE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AROUND 10KTS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN ASIDE FROM
WINDS WILL BE POTENTIAL VISUAL OBSCURATIONS EARLY EVENING INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO SMOKE/HAZE FROM A WILDFIRE IN NYE COUNTY. MOST SMOKE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOFTED. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100F
THROUGH 05Z, PEAKING AT 108F AROUND 00Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS LAS VEGAS VALLEY TERMINALS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AS WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM NYE COUNTY IS EXPECTED
TO ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST SMOKE WILL REMAIN LOFTED, WITH A
SLIGHT POTENTIAL OF SOME VISUAL OBSCURATIONS; HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CLOUD GROUPS IN THE TAF. ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOJAVE, ELEVATED AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST, AND
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OWENS VALLEY AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY,
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPVALLEY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...GORELOW
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