112
FXUS65 KVEF 120821
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
121 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRES WILL RESULT IN HAZY SKIES AT TIMES
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD SMOKE
IMPACTS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE NOT EXPECTED.
* HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING MONDAY AS RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
* MONSOON MOISTURE MAKES A POSSIBLE RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH A DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
VARIOUS FIRES BURN ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT. THE GOTHIC FIRE LOCATED IN CENTRAL NYE COUNTY IS THE
LARGEST FIRE AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HAZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH THE SMOKE PLUME IS LESS ROBUST ON HRRR SMOKE
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. IN ADDITION, NEW FIRES IN NORTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMOKE ALOFT WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SMOKE
ADVECTING THROUGH MOHAVE COUNTY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE ALOFT WITH MINIMAL NEAR SURFACE OR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS NOTED ON THE HRRR AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE HOTTEST DAYS
WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN HEIGHTS REACH +1.0 TO +1.5 SIGMAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OR 4) HEATRISK IS FORECASTED
THIS WEEKEND. ON MONDAY, THE HEATRISK FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FLUCTUATE AND NOW THE AREA OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEATRISK IS MORE
WIDESPREAD FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN THE MID TO LOW ELEVATIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS AS A HEAT PRODUCT
MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT AND WEAKEN AFTER MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF EACH DAY IN RESPONSE STARTING TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, ON
TUESDAY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. THIS MOISTURE
WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION BUT WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES
AND ALSO REDUCE ANY FIRE DANGER DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS. ON
WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY OR LATER
WHEN BETTER MOISTURE AND AN WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, LATE WEEK MOISTURE
INCREASES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS AT OR BELOW 8 KTS WITH WIND DIRECTIONS FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS... LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING,
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z WITH PEAK HEATING AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNSET. SLANTWISE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED
FROM ALL DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, DUE TO WILDFIRES IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. INCLUDED A FEW120 THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT LAS VEGAS VALLEY TERMINALS AS A RESULT.
OTHERWISE, NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY BETWEEN 18 AND 05Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...EXPECT
BREEZY WINDS IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AT OR BELOW 8 KTS WITH
GENERALLY A DIURNAL DIRECTION TREND. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE-AFTERNOON
BEFORE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT KBIH
IN THE AFTERNOON.. GUSTY WEST WINDS PERSIST AT KDAG, WITH A TYPICAL
DECREASE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE-MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED FROM ALL DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, DUE
TO WILDFIRES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHERN ARIZONA.
OTHERWISE, NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...SOULAT
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