266
FXUS65 KVEF 130502
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1002 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRES WILL RESULT IN HAZY SKIES AT TIMES THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD SMOKE IMPACTS NEAR
THE SURFACE ARE NOT EXPECTED.
* HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HEAT
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY.
* MONSOON MOISTURE MAKES A POSSIBLE RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH A DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
VARIOUS FIRES BURN ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT. MOST OF THE SMOKE OVER LAS VEGAS AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY IS ORIGINATING FROM THE DRAGON BRAVO FIRE, A 1500 ACRE FIRE
NEAR THE NORTH RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON, AS WELL AS THE WHITE SAGE
FIRE, A 20 THOUSAND ACRE FIRE SOUTHEAST OF FREDONIA, ARIZONA.
ACCORDING TO THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL, SMOKE FROM THE 30 THOUSAND ACRE
GOTHIC FIRE IN CENTRAL NYE COUNTY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN
ALOFT AND WITH MINIMAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT THE SURFACE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE HOTTEST DAYS
OF NEXT WEEK. MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
HEATRISK ON SUNDAY WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) AROUND THE
MOJAVE DESERT. BY MONDAY, THE POCKETS OF LEVEL 3 EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TO INCLUDE LARGE SWATHS INCLUDING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, AMARGOSA
VALLEY, PAHRUMP, DEATH VALLEY, AND VALLEY OF FIRE. THIS LEVEL
AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION AND
MAY IMPACT HEAT SENSITIVE INDUSTRIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE. THEREFORE,
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ESMERALDA, LINCOLN, AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES, AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR DEATH VALLEY AND THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEVADA ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT AND WEAKEN AFTER MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF EACH DAY IN RESPONSE STARTING TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
FALL. MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO START TO INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN.
WHILE IT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION RIGHT AWAY, IT WILL
HELP COOL TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE ANY FIRE DANGER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES START TO SNEAK INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND BETTER MOISTURE WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL, DAILY PATTERNS AND REMAIN
LIGHT. THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) PROBABILITY OF DISTANT CONVECTION
PUSHING A SOUTHERLY OUTFLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS INTO THE VALLEY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BARRING THIS, ANTICIPATING WINDS TO HOLD AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME. A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
~15KFT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING PEAK HEATING WHILE A SMOKE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 100F BETWEEN 18Z AND 05Z, WITH A PEAK AROUND
110F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS
SHOULD LARGELY FOLLOW TYPICAL, DAILY PATTERNS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE IN THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A
SOUTHERLY OUTFLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. BARRING THIS, STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN OUR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE FORECAST. A FEW SHALLOW CUMULUS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NV, NORTHWEST AZ, AND THE SIERRA CREST. HOWEVER,
THE MAIN "CLOUD" FEATURE WILL BE A SMOKE LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...WOODS
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