989
FXUS65 KVEF 261154
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
454 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A SLOW WARM-UP BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
ARIZONA NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. A WEAK CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
OPEN AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH. DUE TO THE
INCREASED SURFACE GRADIENT OF THIS WEAK LOW, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY
OF BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. BY SUNDAY, WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHICH WILL LEAD TO ONE
MORE DAY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY NORTH OF
MOUNT WHITNEY, BUT BY SUNDAY ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
INYO COUNTY.
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST. THIS WILL
INCREASE HEIGHTS AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL STARTING MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BEGIN THE
WARM UP, THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE HEATRISK WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT
1 (MINOR) TO 2 (MODERATE) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SPREADS WEST, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL FLOW
ACROSS ARIZONA. HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET IS STILL IN
QUESTION AS IT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. AT THIS POINT,
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND .70" TO .80"
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY BY TUESDAY, LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS. ONLY TIME WILL
TELL IF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IS WEST OF THE COLORADO
RIVER, BUT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS
EXPECTED, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT AND
INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
THERMALLY-INDUCED GUSTS WILL RESULT IN SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND
DIRECTION BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST DURING PEAK HEATING,
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT NEAR 100 DEGREES AROUND
00Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT. EXCEPTIONS ARE
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE WHERE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WESTERLY, AND THROUGH THE OWENS VALLEY INCLUDING KBIH WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. AREAWIDE, GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT, WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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