301
FXUS65 KVEF 261748
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1048 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A SLOW WARM-UP BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
ARIZONA NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW-
NORMAL. A WEAK CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
OPEN AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH. DUE TO THE
INCREASED SURFACE GRADIENT OF THIS WEAK LOW, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY
OF BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS. BY SUNDAY, WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, WHICH WILL LEAD TO ONE
MORE DAY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY NORTH OF
MOUNT WHITNEY, BUT BY SUNDAY, ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
INYO COUNTY.
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST. THIS WILL
INCREASE HEIGHTS AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL STARTING MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BEGIN THE
WARM-UP, THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE HEATRISK WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT
1 (MINOR) TO 2 (MODERATE) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SPREADS WEST, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL FLOW
ACROSS ARIZONA. HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET IS STILL IN
QUESTION, AS IT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. AT THIS POINT,
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND .70" TO .80"
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY BY TUESDAY, LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS. ONLY TIME WILL
TELL IF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IS WEST OF THE COLORADO
RIVER, BUT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SIMILAR
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
PICKING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY, WITH VARIANCE BETWEEN 140 AND 220. WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, WITH LIGHT SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR
WINDS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 23
AND 01Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SIMILAR
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
PICKING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
AFTERNOON AT LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES.
KBIH WILL HAVE A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND UNTIL SUNSET AND KDAG
WILL SEE INCREASED WEST GUSTS AROUND 23Z. FEW-SCT AOA 25 KFT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...SOULAT
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