422
FXUS65 KVEF 272108
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
208 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* FINAL DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE REGION WARMS UP
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS ARIZONA MID-TO-LATE WEEK,
WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT BREEZY
AFTERNOONS. IN ADDITION TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH,
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS HAS ALLOWED HEIGHTS ALOFT TO
DROP, RESULTING IN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A FINAL DAY TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE'S WESTWARD
PROGRESSION WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
RESULTING IN AT-OR-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION
AS SOON AS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH "MODERATE" (LEVEL 2 ON A SCALE 0-4) HEATRISK IN DESERT VALLEYS.
THE RETROGRADING OF THIS SOUTHERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
RESULT IN MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION UP THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
CONTEND WITH THE RIDGE'S WESTWARD PROGRESSION, WORKING TO PREVENT
MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ARIZONA. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 0.50" ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY
(0.25-0.40 FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA), SURGING TO AROUND 0.75" ON THURSDAY
IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY (AROUND 0.50" FOR SOUTHERN
NEVADA). THIS MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY
RETREATING. AS A RESULT, SLIGHT POPS (15-30 PERCENT) EXIST FOR
MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OF NOTE, DUE TO THE DRY LOW-
LEVELS AND MODEST MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA, FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN LESS THAN 0.05" ON ANY GIVEN DAY, MAKING
STRONG, GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS NEXT
WEEK. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA
KICKS OFF AN OUTFLOW TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IN THE OUTFLOW, RAINFALL
FORECASTS COULD OVERACHIEVE IN THIS SCENARIO. THIS WILL BE
UNFORTUNATELY HARD TO PREDICT MORE THAN 24 HOURS OUT.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. GUSTS WILL PICK UP LATE-AFTERNOON AS
WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS.
EXPECT DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 150 AND
220. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT-OR-ABOVE 100 DEGREES FROM 21 TO
02Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SIMILAR
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
PICKING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
AFTERNOON AT LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES.
KBIH WILL HAVE A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND UNTIL SUNSET AND KDAG
WILL HAVE GUSTY WEST WINDS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...SOULAT
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