140
FXUS65 KVEF 282001
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
101 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS ARIZONA MID-TO-LATE WEEK, WITH
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SWING
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE SURGING UP THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MID-TO-LATE WEEK. OF NOTE, WITH EACH FORECAST RUN, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AND THE NORTH / WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS MOISTURE
HAS DIMINISHED. ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS
SHOW 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES OF PWAT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PEAKING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES BEFORE RAPIDLY
RETREATING. FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR FORECAST AREA INCLUDING LAKE
HAVASU CITY, NEEDLES, AND LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY WILL EXPERIENCE
PWATS PEAKING BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POPS
ON TUESDAY ARE NOW NEGLIGIBLE, WITH SLIGHT (5-20%) CHANCES CREEPING
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY... SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE DRY LOW-LEVELS, ANY RAIN THAT FALLS THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 0.05", MAKING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH STORM FORMATION. STILL CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA KICKING OFF AN OUTFLOW TOWARD OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHICH, DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IN THE
OUTFLOW, COULD RESULT IN AN OVERACHIEVING RAINFALL FORECAST. THIS
WILL BE UNFORTUNATELY HARD TO PREDICT MORE THAN 24 HOURS OUT, BUT IS
BECOMING DECREASINGLY LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAP INTO MODEST MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SLIGHT POPS TO
NORTHERN ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AT-OR-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEATRISK PEAKING AT
"MODERATE" IN DESERT VALLEYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FAVOR THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. GUSTS WILL PICK UP LATE-
AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KTS. EXPECT DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 150 AND 220. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT-OR-ABOVE 100
DEGREES FROM 20 TO 04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SIMILAR
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST IN THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AT LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KTS. KBIH WILL HAVE A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND UNTIL SUNSET AND
KDAG WILL HAVE GUSTY WEST WINDS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...SOULAT
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