215
FXUS65 KVEF 290531
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1031 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS ARIZONA MID-TO-LATE WEEK, WITH
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SWING
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE SURGING UP THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MID-TO-LATE WEEK. OF NOTE, WITH EACH FORECAST RUN, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AND THE NORTH / WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS MOISTURE
HAS DIMINISHED. ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS
SHOW 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES OF PWAT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PEAKING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES BEFORE RAPIDLY
RETREATING. FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR FORECAST AREA INCLUDING LAKE
HAVASU CITY, NEEDLES, AND LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY WILL EXPERIENCE
PWATS PEAKING BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POPS
ON TUESDAY ARE NOW NEGLIGIBLE, WITH SLIGHT (5-20%) CHANCES CREEPING
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY... SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE DRY LOW-LEVELS, ANY RAIN THAT FALLS THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 0.05", MAKING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH STORM FORMATION. STILL CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA KICKING OFF AN OUTFLOW TOWARD OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHICH, DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IN THE
OUTFLOW, COULD RESULT IN AN OVERACHIEVING RAINFALL FORECAST. THIS
WILL BE UNFORTUNATELY HARD TO PREDICT MORE THAN 24 HOURS OUT, BUT IS
BECOMING DECREASINGLY LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAP INTO MODEST MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SLIGHT POPS TO
NORTHERN ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AT-OR-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEATRISK PEAKING AT
"MODERATE" IN DESERT VALLEYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOME
VARIABLE IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS START TO FAVOR AN EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE LATE MORNING, WHICH WILL GIVE WAY
TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES OF 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY PATTERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS.
EXPECT A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT KBIH. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AT KDAG WILL DECREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND RETURN IN
THE EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...MELTZER
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