036
FXUS65 KVEF 312010
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
109 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATE THIS MORNING SHOW
WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, AND THESE
WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND DRY FUELS, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS.
THE ELEVATED THREAT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AS WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ARIZONA
STRIP MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH RED FLAG CRITERIA, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE WINDS, NO FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER, LEADING TO LOWER FIRE CONCERNS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS. A WEAK PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN ARIZONA
WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (10 TO 15 PERCENT) OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY TOMORROW. THIS
INCREASE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH THE MOISTURE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
EAST BY SATURDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING FROM DAY TO DAY, BUT
GENERALLY REMAINING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN TO THE REGION BY
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
JUST HOW HOT WE WILL GET DUE TO INTERENSEMBLE VARIABILITY REGARDING
THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF LESS THAN 8 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SOUTHEAST
(150-180) DIRECTIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER 18Z, THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW, ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100F BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z BOTH
DAYS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS WILL BE THE KDAG AREA, WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTS IN MOST LOCATIONS OF 15-25 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED, WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) ALONG THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE, CLEAR SKIES WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ/STESSMAN
AVIATION...PLANZ
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