385
FXUS65 KVEF 010530
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1030 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATE THIS MORNING SHOW
WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, AND THESE
WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND DRY FUELS, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS.
THE ELEVATED THREAT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AS WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ARIZONA
STRIP MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH RED FLAG CRITERIA, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE WINDS, NO FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER, LEADING TO LOWER FIRE CONCERNS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS. A WEAK PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN ARIZONA
WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (10 TO 15 PERCENT) OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY TOMORROW. THIS
INCREASE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH THE MOISTURE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
EAST BY SATURDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING FROM DAY TO DAY, BUT
GENERALLY REMAINING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN TO THE REGION BY
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
JUST HOW HOT WE WILL GET DUE TO INTERENSEMBLE VARIABILITY REGARDING
THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS BECOME REESTABLISHED IN THE AFTERNOON, DECREASING AFTER
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 20Z AND 30Z, WITH
A HIGH OF AROUND 106 DEGREES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR KDAG WHERE BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS PICK UP ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON, DECREASING IN THE EVENING.
AT KBIH, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ/STESSMAN
AVIATION...MELTZER
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