588
FXUS65 KVEF 011016
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
316 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
* POTENTIAL FOR A MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE MIDWEEK, WITH ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
PERSISTENT, DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PUSH ACROSS ARIZONA HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY FROM
FORECAST RUNS SEVERAL DAYS AGO, THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW 0.50 TO 0.75" OF PWAT CLIMB UP THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL ELEVATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS, BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER OR PRECIPITATION. SIMILARLY, LATEST NBM RUNS SHOW
NEGLIGIBLE (SUB-10%) POPS ACROSS EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY, THOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMED
OFF OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA. CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO DRY OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THERE IS CONTINUED INTER-MODEL AGREEMENT IN A TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST / NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WHILE THE MONSOONAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS / NORTHERN MEXICO
CONTINUES TO BUILD. BY MIDWEEK, THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE DEAMPLIFIED
THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SHIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WITH FORECAST ECMWF ENSEMBLE PWATS
PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY FROM LAUGHLIN / BULLHEAD CITY TO LAS VEGAS TO
0.75 TO 1.00". THE NBM IS NOT CURRENTLY ON BOARD WITH THIS
SOLUTION, AS NBM FORECAST TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB ABOVE-
NORMAL MID-TO-LATE WEEK AND NBM POPS REMAIN SLIGHT (10-20%) -
ISOLATED TO EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. REGARDLESS, ALL MODELS AGREE
THAT THE MONSOONAL HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN RETROGRADE WESTWARD,
RESULTING IN CLIMBING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
HEATRISK IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY INCREASES TO "MAJOR" AND
"EXTREME" THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RESURGENCE MIDWEEK AND THE NEED FOR
HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES LATE-WEEK AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS BECOME REESTABLISHED IN THE AFTERNOON, DECREASING
AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 20Z AND 30Z,
WITH A HIGH AROUND 106 DEGREES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR KDAG
WHERE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS PICK UP ACROSS THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON, DECREASING
IN THE EVENING. AT KBIH, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...MELTZER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page