126
FXUS65 KVEF 020500
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
* POTENTIAL FOR A MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE MIDWEEK, WITH ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
ON A SURPRISING NOTE- THERE HAS BEEN A SURGE IN MOISTURE IN WESTERN
ARIZONA. DEWPOINTS HAVE ROSE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F AND PWATS HAVE
GONE FROM 0.30IN YESTERDAY TO 0.50-0.75IN TODAY. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
HAS ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY. VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IF AND WHERE THEY COULD DEVELOP AS MODELS SEEM TO BE LAGGING
BEHIND CURRENT CONDITIONS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY
CONTAIN BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND WIND GUSTS TO
30 MPH. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS, IT WILL END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
AFTER THAT, IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM OUR SOUTH INTO ARIZONA.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STARTING TUESDAY, A WARM UP IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS CENTERED
OVER ARIZONA BUILD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS,
THOUGH THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN MAX TEMPERATURES ON ENSEMBLES
AS THERE IS ALSO HINTS OF INCREASING MOISTURE THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY, HEATRISK IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY INCREASES
TO MAJOR STARTING WEDNESDAY, AND THEN SHOWS MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEATRISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO SEEING MAJOR HEAT RISK NOW IN THE
MORONGO BASIN AND A FEW SPOTS OF CLARK COUNTY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RESURGENCE
MIDWEEK AND TEMPERATURE/HEATRISK TRENDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WHICH WILL DRIVE THE NEED FOR HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES LATE-WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
TYPICAL
OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 8KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LIGHTER THAN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100F BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z, WITH A HIGH
AROUND 106F UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS OVER MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR KDAG. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...GORELOW
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