012
FXUS65 KVEF 301130
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
430 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING SOME LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW END
CAPE VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY AND SUNDAY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND WARMING ABOVE
500MB IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK AND STUNTED.
THEREFORE, NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
CLIMB WITH LAS VEGAS SEEING ABOUT A 75% CHANCE OF REACHING 100F
TODAY AND A NEAR 100% CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST SHOVES THE HIGH EASTWARD. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING
SOME LOWERING HEIGHTS, BUT IT WILL ALSO START TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN BY TUESDAY. A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. PWATS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 130 TO 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. WITH
THE MOISTURE RETURN, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THEN TURN BACK
TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 8KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUR AROUND 100
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 23Z, THEN QUICKLY DROP BACK TO UNDER
100F BY 02Z THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH AROUND 10KT IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20KT
IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND KIFP. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. ELSEWHERE, WINDS SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY PATTERNS WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
KBIH WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FAVORING EITHER
THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST, HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10KT NO
MATTER THE DIRECTION. SMOKE FROM THE GARNET WILDFIRE BURNING ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SIERRA WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE OWENS
VALLEY; SLANTWISE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT CURRENTLY
NOT EXPECTING SURFACE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OR LOW CIGS DUE TO
SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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