704
FXUS65 KVEF 310530
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1030 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
* A MID-WEEK INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UP AND TEMPERATURES DOWN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
WESTERN US THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH A PEAK ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2-6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
MODERATE AND ISOLATED MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LARGELY BELOW 10%, ONLY EXCEEDING THIS
VALUE IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON (10-20%).
AFTER LABOR DAY, THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. THESE FEATURES INDUCE A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT ADVECTS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LATEST NBM HAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 10-25% POPS, BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE
SIERRA AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. WITH NO OBVIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS, MORE SPECIFIC FORECASTING OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE
TO BE DONE ON A DAY-BY-DAY BASIS AS PRECEDING CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE DAILY EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. REGARDLESS, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT, 10 KNOTS OR LESS, AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS THEY
TRANSITION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND
102, WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT BREEZES THAT
FOLLOW TYPICAL, DAILY PATTERNS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE OWENS VALLEY
WHERE BREEZY UPVALLEY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 15 TO
20 KNOT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILDFIRE SMOKE
SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST, SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE OWENS VALLEY. HOWEVER, WEAK CONVECTION
ON THE SIERRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY INDUCE SOME ERRATIC, GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE OWENS VALLEY (20% CHANCE).
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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