960
FXUS65 KVEF 310832
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
130 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
* A MID-WEEK INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UP AND TEMPERATURES DOWN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
PEAKING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE WITH SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND DEATH VALLEY. SOME LOWER AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE HIGH, BUT LIKE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE REMAINS A VERY DRY AND
STABLE LAYER ABOVE 500MB, SO ANY CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL REMAIN
FLAT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND. AS THIS OCCURS, IT WILL SHIFT
THE HIGH EASTWARD AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
BACK INTO THE REGION. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME LOW END POPS OVER
SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ANYTHING
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. WITH NO OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISMS, MORE SPECIFIC
FORECASTING OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE DONE ON A DAY-BY-
DAY BASIS AS PRECEDING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY
INFLUENCE THE DAILY EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. REGARDLESS,
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT, 10 KNOTS OR LESS, AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS THEY
TRANSITION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND
102, WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT BREEZES THAT
FOLLOW TYPICAL, DAILY PATTERNS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE OWENS VALLEY
WHERE BREEZY UPVALLEY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 15 TO
20 KNOT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILDFIRE SMOKE
SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST, SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE OWENS VALLEY. HOWEVER, WEAK CONVECTION
ON THE SIERRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY INDUCE SOME ERRATIC, GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE OWENS VALLEY (20% CHANCE).
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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