087
FXUS65 KVEF 311114
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
414 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
* A MID-WEEK INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UP AND TEMPERATURES DOWN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
PEAKING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE WITH SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND DEATH VALLEY. SOME LOWER AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE HIGH, BUT LIKE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE REMAINS A VERY DRY AND
STABLE LAYER ABOVE 500MB, SO ANY CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL REMAIN
FLAT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND. AS THIS OCCURS, IT WILL SHIFT
THE HIGH EASTWARD AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
BACK INTO THE REGION. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME LOW END POPS OVER
SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ANYTHING
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. WITH NO OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISMS, MORE SPECIFIC
FORECASTING OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE DONE ON A DAY-BY-
DAY BASIS AS PRECEDING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY
INFLUENCE THE DAILY EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. REGARDLESS,
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 12Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN UNDER 8KT AND FAVOR 050-080 DEGREES TRUE. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN BACK TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 8KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE EAST THAN TODAY AT ABOUT 8KT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB OVER 100F BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TODAY, WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE AROUND 103F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...OTHER THAN A LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL WIND PATTERN IN MOST LOCATIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OWENS VALLEY,
INCLUDING AT KBIH, WITH GUSTS 15-20KT EXPECTED. WINDS IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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