617
FXUS65 KVEF 311743
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1043 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
* A MID-WEEK INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UP AND TEMPERATURES DOWN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
PEAKING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE WITH SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND DEATH VALLEY. SOME LOWER AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE HIGH, BUT LIKE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE REMAINS A VERY DRY AND
STABLE LAYER ABOVE 500MB, SO ANY CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL REMAIN
FLAT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND. AS THIS OCCURS, IT WILL SHIFT
THE HIGH EASTWARD AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
BACK INTO THE REGION. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME LOW END POPS OVER
SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ANYTHING
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. WITH NO OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISMS, MORE SPECIFIC
FORECASTING OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE DONE ON A DAY-BY-
DAY BASIS AS PRECEDING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY
INFLUENCE THE DAILY EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. REGARDLESS,
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL FOLLOW THEIR TYPICAL DAILY PATTERNS WITH
SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND FAVOR EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OR
VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE THIS
EVENING. FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z
TODAY, PEAKING AROUND 103 DEGREES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DAILY PATTERS WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS KBIH, WHERE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER HIGH
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON AVIATION.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA, SOME OF WHICH
COULD ENTER THE VICINITY OF KBIH. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. SMOKE FROM THE GARNET FIRE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SIERRA MAY REACH KBIH OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...MELTZER
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