826
FXUS65 KVEF 311959
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1259 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
* A MID-WEEK INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UP AND TEMPERATURES DOWN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE WITH SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK IN CERTAIN VALLEYS AROUND THE
MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING DEATH VALLEY AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW 500 MB, BUT DRY AND STABLE ABOVE 500 MB
SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY LOCATION WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY IS THE EASTERN SIERRA. THE PRESENCE OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE AND A BOOST FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NEAR BISHOP THIS AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL PUSH
THE HIGH EASTWARD AND ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO
THE REGION. LOW END POPS RETURN TO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AS EARLY
AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE INCREASES
ON TUESDAY WITH IMPROVED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO
FAVOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE
MOISTURE EAST ON WEDNESDAY, CAUSING THE HIGHEST POPS TO SHIFT EAST
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. FROM THERE, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MORE SPECIFIC FORECASTING
OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE DONE ON A DAY-BY-DAY BASIS AS
PRECEDING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE
DAILY EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. REGARDLESS, FLASH FLOODING
AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.
STAY TUNED FOR DETAILS WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL FOLLOW THEIR TYPICAL DAILY PATTERNS WITH
SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND FAVOR EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OR
VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE THIS
EVENING. FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z
TODAY, PEAKING AROUND 103 DEGREES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DAILY PATTERS WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS KBIH, WHERE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER HIGH
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON AVIATION.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA, SOME OF WHICH
COULD ENTER THE VICINITY OF KBIH. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. SMOKE FROM THE GARNET FIRE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SIERRA MAY REACH KBIH OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...MELTZER
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