826
FXUS65 KVEF 030517
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1017 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, PUSHING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AWAY TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ONGOING AT 8 PM. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WAS NEUTRALIZED BY THICK
CLOUD COVER WHICH INHIBITED HEATING ALL DAY, PREVENTING INSTABILITY
FROM BEING REALIZED. THUS, THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
DISCUSSION
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA, PROVIDING FUEL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEWPOINT
ROSE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER-MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS STORMS MOVED INTO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF A MONSOONAL
EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING FROM SOUTHER ARIZONA. STORMS HAVE PRODUCED
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AND EXTENDED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WHICH HAVE PROVIDED FOCUS FOR SHORT-LIVED STORMS
AS THE OUTFLOW MOVED THROUGH. THERE HAVE BEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN, BUT MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN .10" OF RAIN WITH A FEW
AREAS OF .25" TO .35". CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR A
RESURGENCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AS IS BEING SEEN IN MOHAVE AND
COCONINO COUNTIES IN ARIZONA. ASSUMING THE CLEARING CONTINUES,
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY, THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAIN RATES OF OVER 2" PER HOUR,
MEANING STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE FLOODING RAPIDLY. DUE TO THIS,
THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THE 1 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO WILL LINGER AROUND THE ARE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE. THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THIS SHORTWAVE SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND SHIFTS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO UTAH AND ARIZONA. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE MUCH LESS BY THEN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED, VICINITY SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD BASES
SHOULD STAY ABOVE 10KFT. LIGHT NORTHERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, TURNING MORE EASTERLY MID/LATE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON, VICINITY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS LONG AS SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY BEFOREHAND. IF CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING, ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED. CURRENTLY, BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS/OUTFLOW TO REACH THE
TERMINAL ARE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY LATE
EVENING, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10KFT ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FAVORING
SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, AND THE SIERRA CREST. MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR ANY CONVECTION. THE EXTENT
OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL INFLUENCE THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE EVENING,
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...MORGAN
DISCUSSION...BERC
AVIATION...WOODS
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