184
FXUS65 KVEF 032016
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
116 PM PDT WED SEP 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION, SHIFTING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER EAST EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER IS
THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BAND LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL DELAY THE OVERALL ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH IT. ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY, WITH STORMS MOVING SIMILARLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT
THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY FAST AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT
RAINFALL TOTALS AT A GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER, TRAINING OF STORMS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STORMS WILL BE MOST FAVORED
OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE DCAPE VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY OVER CLARK, LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND FAVORING MOHAVE COUNTY ON SATURDAY. DIRECT
MOISTURE RELATED TO HURRICANE LORENA SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY REMAINING IN THE 90S.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAS VEGAS VALLEY
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BY MID AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL BUT
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE MORE LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES BOTH TODAY AND ON THURSDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...A BAND OF LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTH AND INTO LINCOLN COUNTY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FAVORING
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL
AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF BISHOP. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP, WITH OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
STORMS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 10KT AND BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE TERRAIN.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...CZYZYK
AVIATION...CZYZYK
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