688
FXUS65 KVEF 040844
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
144 AM PDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION, SHIFTING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER EAST EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE POSITION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND A TROUGH OFF
OF THE PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LORENA INTO ARIZONA, CALIFORNIA, AND NEVADA. MOISTURE AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL GIVE AN EXTRA BOOST FOR DEVELOPMENT. OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM INITIAL CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, LIKELY DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE ALOFT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS LOW AS IT HINGES ON THE POTENCY OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLIER IN THE
DAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES AND
SATURATED FORECAST SOUNDINGS MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ONE OF THE MAIN HAZARDS. DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG
POINTS TOWARDS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS ANOTHER HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE IN LINCOLN, CLARK, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES.
DRIER AIR WILL BECOME DOMINANT BY SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY, WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S IN LAS VEGAS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
AFTER
QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY AFFECTING ALL
CORRIDORS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT UNTIL BECOMING EASTERLY MID MORNING, POSSIBLY REMAINING
EASTERLY ALL DAY OR SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100F THURSDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE REGION AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH STORMS WILL BE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, VERY HEAVY RAIN, AND LOW
CEILINGS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY EVENING TRACKING ALL THE WAY FROM
LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES, POSSIBLY LASTING
ALL NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE DETAILS. AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS, WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...MORGAN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page