344
FXUS65 KVEF 042004
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
104 PM PDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION, SHIFTING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER EAST EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND ACROSS CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. PW VALUES
ARE RANGING FROM 1.25-1.75 INCHES AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH THAT MOISTURE THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
STORM LORENA HELPS MAINTAIN THAT DEEP MOISTURE. THE DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM LORENA CONTINUE TO BE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND NOT A
FACTOR HERE. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND ALTHOUGH NOT LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THE STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE
CONVECTION BEGAN MUCH EARLIER AROUND 18Z BUT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH EARLIER, PRIMARILY BY SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION THAT FORMS
OVER LINCOLN COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST UTAH TO PUSH ITS WAS TO THE SOUTH
AND INTO EASTERN CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS BRING THOSE STORMS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MOHAVE
COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THESE
STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY WILL FAVOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. OVER THE
WEEKEND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIMITED FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST ON SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE EPS DOES LINGER THE MOISTURE
A BIT LONGER MAINTAINING IT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A DEEP, EARLY SEASON TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN DRY AIR AND ALSO PRODUCE LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY, WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S IN LAS VEGAS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOME
LIMITED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LV VALLEY THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN ARE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE TERMINAL (15-25%
CHANCE). ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS TODAY. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL
CONCERN FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
AFTER 06Z. THESE WOULD RESULT IN A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT AT THE
TERMINAL, AND WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/MAGNITUDE, THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 8KT OR LESS AND BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA, PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP, WITH OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE AWAY
FROM STORMS. AFTER 06Z, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STORMS
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AND BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON ONWARD, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...CZYZYK
AVIATION...CZYZYK/PHILLIPSON
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