332
FXUS65 KVEF 050757
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1257 AM PDT FRI SEP 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION, SHIFTING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER EAST EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LORENA WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL NORTH
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL SPAN
FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INTO CLARK AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES TODAY, WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.75 INCHES. CURRENTLY
WATCHING A GROUP OF STRONG MULTICELLULAR STORMS SUPPORTED BY A VORT
MAX TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SO
FAR THEY HAVE PRODUCED GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE SHOULD WEAKEN AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION STARTS AROUND 18Z, INITIALLY FAVORING HIGH
TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS
OUTFLOW DRIVEN STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LASTING LATER
INTO THE NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS WELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED
IN MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE. MOISTURE DECREASES TO THE 1.0 TO 1.5
INCH RANGE AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. A FEW LINGERING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
A DEEP, EARLY SEASON TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST AND ITS AXIS SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
DRY AIR AND ALSO PRODUCE LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S IN LAS VEGAS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THERE IS
A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE TERMINAL TO SEE OUTFLOW WINDS, BUT A
STORM AT THE TERMINAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY
TO RETURN AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AROUND MID MORNING. NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
OUTFLOW WINDS AND FOR A STORM AT OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. QUIET WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
100F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
LINCOLN, CLARK, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND LOW CEILINGS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION. AWAY
FROM STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS LESS THAN
20 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...MORGAN
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