863
FXUS65 KVEF 051153
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
453 AM PDT FRI SEP 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION, SHIFTING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER EAST EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LORENA WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL NORTH
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL SPAN
FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INTO CLARK AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES TODAY, WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.75 INCHES. CURRENTLY
WATCHING A GROUP OF STRONG MULTICELLULAR STORMS SUPPORTED BY A VORT
MAX TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SO
FAR THEY HAVE PRODUCED GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE SHOULD WEAKEN AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION STARTS AROUND 18Z, INITIALLY FAVORING HIGH
TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS
OUTFLOW DRIVEN STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LASTING LATER
INTO THE NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS WELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED
IN MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE. MOISTURE DECREASES TO THE 1.0 TO 1.5
INCH RANGE AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. A FEW LINGERING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
A DEEP, EARLY SEASON TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST AND ITS AXIS SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
DRY AIR AND ALSO PRODUCE LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S IN LAS VEGAS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WIND
GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
VALLEY, WITH A 20-40% PROBABILITY FOR STORMS AND OUTFLOW TO MOVE
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS. STORMS
LARGELY DIMINISH BY SUNSET, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE CONCERNING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE VARIABLE
DUE TO LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER
10KT AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...EARLY THIS MORNING,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP, WITH OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE
AWAY FROM STORMS. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET, SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP OR LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES,
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10KT OR LESS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
OWENS VALLEY AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTY UP-VALLEY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page