982
FXUS65 KVEF 052217
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
317 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY, PROMOTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
TRAPPED BENEATH A FLATTENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND ADJACENT WESTERN ARIZONA LOOK TO HOLD THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HI-RES ENSEMBLES HAVE
RECENTLY STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, OFTEN UNDERESTIMATING THE LONGEVITY AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. RECENT EXAMPLES INCLUDE TUESDAY EARLIER
THIS WEEK AND LAST NIGHT, WHEN LARGE STORM COMPLEXES DEVELOPED AND
LASTED WELL PAST SUNRISE. THE GRADUAL INVASION OF DRIER AIR MAKES
FOR LESSER CONFIDENCE IN SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENING OVERNIGHT,
BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, ANY STRONGER STORM
CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 3-4 INCHES
PER HOUR, LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FOCUS FOR
SUNDAY'S STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO MOSTLY WESTERN ARIZONA
AND UTAH AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN NATURE. HOWEVER,
AN ISOLATED TERRAIN INDUCED STORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR FURTHER WEST.
MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES DISPLAY RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL PUSH REMNANT MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION, RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS, WE CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE DRIER
AIR WILL ALSO BRING MORE RELIEF OVERNIGHT WITH PLEASANT MORNING
CONDITIONS FROM MIDWEEK ON.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 00Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL, ANY STRONGER NEARBY STORM
COULD PRODUCT GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND VARYING WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN VCTS THROUGH 02Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT
BRIEFLY SOUTHWEST THEN TURN MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY
SPECIFIC TERMINAL BEING IMPACTED, BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH ANY NEARBY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE ON A MORE
DIURNAL TREND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHERE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...AUSTIN
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