632
FXUS65 KVEF 140804
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
104 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
* MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK,
BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
* THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS, SO THE FORECAST FOR ANY
GIVEN POINT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK, BUT TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS
FIRST. STEPPING BACK AND TAKING A LOOK AT CURRENT CONDITIONS, WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A TROUGH COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, A DRY CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING AROUND NEAR 29N 126W, AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO
SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND TODAY
AND PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WITH MINIMAL EFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER, LEAVING US UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. BY TUESDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVERHEAD, BUT MEANWHILE, THE REMNANTS OF
MARIO WILL HAVE TRACKED NORTHWEST OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA (POSSIBLY
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL STORM, BUT WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS
WON'T MATTER MUCH FOR THIS FORECAST), AND THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD HAVE
DRIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
ADVECT NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW AND THE INLAND HIGH,
POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY BUT MORE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE
DOOR OPENS FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO COME NORTH UP THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF OUR REGION. ALL OF THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE
AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT WHAT FOLLOWS IS OF EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. ONCE
THE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, WILL THE CUTOFF LOW PHASE WITH ONE OF THE
INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS? IF IT DOES, THIS WOULD LIKELY
FOCUS HIGHER POPS FOR OUR AREA INTO A SHORTER TIME WINDOW, WITH A
DRYING TREND TO FOLLOW. IF IT DOESN'T, THERE COULD BE A LONGER TIME
WINDOW OF LOWER GRADE POPS. AT THE RISK OF REPETITION, CONFIDENCE IN
ANY OF THESE DETAILS IS LOW, AND THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
CHANGES. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS DRY AND WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOLING AND MOISTENING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WIND
DIRECTION WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, VEERING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT BEFORE DIMINISHING AND VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING UNDER 100 DEGREES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ACROSS THE REGION,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 10KT OR LESS.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT, WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 10-12KT. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MORGAN
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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