787
FXUS65 KVEF 141923
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1223 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
* INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH DETAILS SUCH AS COVERAGE
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS WELL AS A
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AVERAGE LAST 100 DEGREE
DAY OF THE YEAR IN LAS VEGAS IS AROUND SEPTEMBER 18TH, AND BY
WEDNESDAY NBM PROBABILITIES CLIMB TO 10% FOR REACHING 100. AS
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL, HEAT RISK REMAINS PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE MINOR
TERRITORY OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER REACHES OF DEATH VALLEY AND THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM MARIO HAS REGENERATED THIS MORNING IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WILL GRADUALLY TREK NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. AS ITS REMNANTS
DRIFT NORTHWARD THEY WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW THANKS TO A
WEAK LOW LURKING OFF THE SOCAL COAST, AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEEK.
OVERALL, FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN PRETTY AGREEMENT ON THIS
GENERAL CONCEPT OF MOISTURE ADVANCEMENT INTO THE REGION. WHAT'S
LESS CERTAIN IS IF THERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FORCING FEATURES (JET
STREAK, SHORTWAVES, BOUNDARIES, ETC) PRESENT TO ACT ON THIS
MOISTURE. THIS MAKES DETAILS LIKE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS LESS CERTAIN, BUT FOR NOW THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 20-50
PERCENT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK PRETTY
GOOD AND ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR GENERAL MESSAGING. STAY TUNED
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS WE BETTER HONE IN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WIND DIRECTION WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT, MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KT, BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15KT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING UNDER 100 DEGREES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS INTO MONDAY, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 10KT OR LESS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT KBIH ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 10-12KT BETWEEN 22-01Z.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...OUTLER
AVIATION...GORELOW
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