924
FXUS65 KVEF 181716
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1016 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
FRIDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
* SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MARIO
BLANKETING OUR CWA. SURFACE OBS SHOWED LIGHT WINDS, A VERY SHARP
DEWPOINT GRADIENT NEAR INTERSTATE 40, AND LIGHT RAIN NEARING OUR
SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW, THE
INCOMING RAIN IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS AND WPC PROJECTIONS STILL SHOW THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAIN IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, SO WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE THERE. LOWER, BUT NONZERO, RISKS FOR FLOODING STILL EXIST IN
THE REST OF OUR CWA, PRIMARILY INYO, CLARK, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. THE
GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING SHOULD BE TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE
BEST FORCING EXITS FRIDAY MORNING. LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD FUEL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
LIMITED TO MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHETHER ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS
OFFSHORE OR MOVES INLAND AND TAPS INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING
TO OUR SOUTH. THE FIRST SCENARIO, WHICH LOOKS MORE LIKELY, WOULD
RESULT IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. THE SECOND, WHICH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THE
EXPECTATION FOR TODAY IS AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES IN, ANTICIPATING A PUSH OF BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS GET
ESTABLISHED IN THE VICINITY. DURING THE EVENING HOURS, UNCERTAINTY
GROWS AS PERIODS OF VICINITY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 07Z-09Z.
THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO THE VALLEY AND PRODUCE
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIGHT WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT, RETURNING TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN
TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF VICINITY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS LARGELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10KFT, BUT MAY DIP
DOWN TO ~8KFT DURING ANY PRECIPITATION.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO INYO, SOUTHERN NYE, CLARK, AND
CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTIES LATER TODAY, WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
REDEVELOPING ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT ERRATIC AND GUSTY AT TIMES NEAR ANY PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY
THE STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BRING CIGS DOWN TO 8-
10KFT IN MOST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
4KFT IN PARTS OF THE OWENS VALLEY. SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MORGAN
AVIATION...WOODS
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