251
FXUS65 KVEF 050807
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
107 AM PDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IN THE DYER,
NV AREA WILL EXPIRE THIS MORNING.
* TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
* WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BECOME WET AND UNSETTLED AS A
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WEST COAST.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY. MIDNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES AREAWIDE. SURFACE OBS SHOWED LIGHT WINDS AND MIXED TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH WIND IN THE DYER AREA TO PREVENT THE LOW
LEVELS FROM STRATIFYING, AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE FORECAST CURVE AS OF MIDNIGHT. THE FREEZE
WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT, AND THE TEMP WILL FALL VERY QUICKLY
IF/WHEN THE WIND DIES, SO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BAGGY
TROUGHING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TRANSITIONS TO RIDGING AROUND
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MIDWEEK AS HEIGHTS
INCREASE.
AS EXPECTED, TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA HAS DEVELOPED WELL SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LUCAS, AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. AS
HAS BEEN NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS, THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL EXERT INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TURN PRISCILLA NORTH,
OR IF PRISCILLA WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE
TROUGH AND PRESUMABLY CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD. THERE IS STILL A
WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THIS QUESTION.
HOWEVER, THERE SEEMS TO BE BETTER CONSENSUS THAN YESTERDAY SHOWING
AT LEAST SOME OF PRISCILLA'S MOISTURE GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE
TROUGH AND PULLED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER
THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES REGARDING
HOW MUCH RAIN MIGHT RESULT AND EXACTLY WHERE IT MIGHT FALL.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS STILL VERY LOW.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT POTENTIALLY FAVORING THE WEST BUT
GENERALLY BECOMING VARIABLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS AT 8-10KT EXPECTED. AROUND
MID-MORNING, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TO BELOW 8 KT AND GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO A NORTHEAST THEN EAT DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...TYPICAL LIGHT WINDS OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE WINDS IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT TEND TO FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL TRENDS.
THE NORTH WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND
FOLLOWING TYPICAL WIND TRENDS AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MORGAN
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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