022
FXUS65 KVEF 051122
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
422 AM PDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IN THE DYER,
NV AREA WILL EXPIRE THIS MORNING.
* TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
* WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BECOME WET AND UNSETTLED AS A
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WEST COAST.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY. MIDNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES AREAWIDE. SURFACE OBS SHOWED LIGHT WINDS AND MIXED TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH WIND IN THE DYER AREA TO PREVENT THE LOW
LEVELS FROM STRATIFYING, AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE FORECAST CURVE AS OF MIDNIGHT. THE FREEZE
WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT, AND THE TEMP WILL FALL VERY QUICKLY
IF/WHEN THE WIND DIES, SO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BAGGY
TROUGHING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TRANSITIONS TO RIDGING AROUND
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MIDWEEK AS HEIGHTS
INCREASE.
AS EXPECTED, TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA HAS DEVELOPED WELL SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LUCAS, AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. AS
HAS BEEN NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS, THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL EXERT INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TURN PRISCILLA NORTH,
OR IF PRISCILLA WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE
TROUGH AND PRESUMABLY CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD. THERE IS STILL A
WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THIS QUESTION.
HOWEVER, THERE SEEMS TO BE BETTER CONSENSUS THAN YESTERDAY SHOWING
AT LEAST SOME OF PRISCILLA'S MOISTURE GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE
TROUGH AND PULLED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER
THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES REGARDING
HOW MUCH RAIN MIGHT RESULT AND EXACTLY WHERE IT MIGHT FALL.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS STILL VERY LOW.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE MORNING, WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 8 KNOTS
BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST OVER 10 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AREAWIDE.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH
TERRAIN WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE, AS THE OWENS VALLEY SEES A WEAK
UPVALLEY (SOUTHERLY) WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND BARSTOW SEES THEIR
USUAL WESTERLY WIND. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MORGAN
AVIATION...MORGAN
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