526
FXUS65 KVEF 060452
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
952 PM PDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
* WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BECOME WET AND UNSETTLED AS A
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WEST COAST.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB FROM SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SPORADIC ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS
NEAR LAKE MOHAVE AND BULLHEAD CITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEATHER FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED THURSDAY ONWARD AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON HOW TO HANDLE THE REMAINS OF
PRISCILLA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND HOW THAT REMNANT MOISTURE
MAY INTERACT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. MOST OF THE GFS
AND CANADIAN BASED ENSEMBLES TAKE PRISCILLA OUT TO SEA, WHICH
RESULTS IN A SLOWER AND MORE MODEST NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES FAVORED OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE ECMWF AND ICON BASED GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE
MORE INSISTENT ON THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA LIFTING NORTH ALONG
THE BAJA COAST AND INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHILE GETTING
ABSORBED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR AN EARLIER PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS. GIVEN THE
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY, IT'S HARD TO SAY MORE THAN THAT INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE THU - SUN TIME PERIOD, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS WELL. AS
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A SOLUTION, TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CLEAR. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING HEIGHTS MOVING IN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DAILY TRENDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-9 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
A BRIEF, BUT STRONGER NORTHEAST PUSH ARRIVING INTO THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. IF THESE WINDS DO OCCUR, WE CAN EXPECT A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20
KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AN UPTICK IN NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH
STRONGEST WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS NEAR KEED AND KIFP. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TUESDAY IN
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...OUTLER
AVIATION...GORELOW
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