800
FXUS65 KVEF 061635
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
940 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
* WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BECOME WET AND UNSETTLED AS A
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WEST COAST.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A
PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ESMERALDA COUNTY AND CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE REST OF OUR CWA. SURFACE OBS SHOWED LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY, PUSHING HIGHS
FROM ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL YESTERDAY TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN FAVORABLY ORIENTED TERRAIN AREAS TODAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE GRADIENTS REVERSE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED THURSDAY ONWARD AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON HOW TO HANDLE THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE
PRISCILLA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND HOW THAT REMNANT MOISTURE MAY
INTERACT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. MOST OF THE GFS AND
CANADIAN BASED ENSEMBLES TAKE PRISCILLA OUT TO SEA, WHICH RESULTS IN
A SLOWER AND MORE MODEST NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES FAVORED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS IS AT
ODDS WITH THE ECMWF AND ICON BASED GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE MORE
INSISTENT ON THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE BAJA
COAST AND INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHILE GETTING ABSORBED
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO WOULD
FAVOR AN EARLIER PRECIPITATION ONSET AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY, IT'S
HARD TO SAY MORE THAN THAT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE THU - SUN TIME PERIOD, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS WELL. AS GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A
SOLUTION, TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR.
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING
HEIGHTS MOVING IN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 6-8
KNOTS. A FEW SPORATIC GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A BRIEF, BUT STRONGER NORTHEAST PUSH ARRIVING
INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. IF THESE WINDS DO
OCCUR, WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AN UPTICK IN NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS NEAR KEED AND KIFP. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MORGAN/OUTLER
AVIATION...GORELOW/OUTLER
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