901
FXUS65 KVEF 082218
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
318 PM PDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY.
* AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TO FLUSH MOISTURE FROM THE REGION
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, LEAVING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SHE MOVES NORTH
INTO COOLER WATERS. AS SHE MOVES NORTH, WE WILL SEE MOISTURE BEGIN
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE
WILL HELP TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER AND THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND INYO COUNTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AND PUSH THE MOISTURE OFF TO
THE EAST. DUE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND ALL OF MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 10:00 AM PDT/MST
TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, HELPING TO CLEAR MOISTURE FROM THE REGION. IN ADDITION
TO HELPING US DRY OUT, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WE CONTINUE TO FIND
OURSELVES IN A TROUGH-Y PATTERN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW DIURNAL PATTERNS INTO THIS EVENING, WITH EAST
WINDS CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 8 KNOTS. LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING, WINDS WILL SETTLE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH, REMAINING
AROUND 8 KNOTS, THOUGH INTERMITTENT HIGHER GUSTS TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE EVENING
ONWARD. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY REMAIN
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, THOUGH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN LAS VEGAS VALLEY, AND IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT. IN THE OWENS VALLEY, KBIH WILL SEE GUSTY UP-VALLEY WINDS
FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD, PEAKING AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...PLANZ
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