601
FXUS65 KVEF 082349
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
449 PM PDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY.
* AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TO FLUSH MOISTURE FROM THE REGION
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, LEAVING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SHE MOVES NORTH
INTO COOLER WATERS. AS SHE MOVES NORTH, WE WILL SEE MOISTURE BEGIN
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE
WILL HELP TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER AND THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND INYO COUNTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AND PUSH THE MOISTURE OFF TO
THE EAST. DUE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND ALL OF MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 10:00 AM PDT/MST
TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, HELPING TO CLEAR MOISTURE FROM THE REGION. IN ADDITION
TO HELPING US DRY OUT, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WE CONTINUE TO FIND
OURSELVES IN A TROUGH-Y PATTERN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK, GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
(50-70% CHANCE) FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
TERMINAL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 8-10KFT AFTER SUNRISE, WITH LOWER
CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10KT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION EXISTS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA, WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOJAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD. ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP, WITH VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 10KT
OR LESS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORMS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF KBIH, WHERE
GUSTY UP-VALLEY WINDS TO 25-35KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERIODIC GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOJAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THESE SHOULD PEAK
AROUND 20KT. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL,
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CEILINGS DROPPING TO 10-12KFT BY
MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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