261
FXUS65 KVEF 090459
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
959 PM PDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY.
* AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TO FLUSH MOISTURE FROM THE REGION
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, LEAVING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SHE MOVES NORTH
INTO COOLER WATERS. AS SHE MOVES NORTH, WE WILL SEE MOISTURE BEGIN
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE
WILL HELP TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER AND THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND INYO COUNTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AND PUSH THE MOISTURE OFF TO
THE EAST. DUE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND ALL OF MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 10:00 AM PDT/MST
TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, HELPING TO CLEAR MOISTURE FROM THE REGION. IN ADDITION
TO HELPING US DRY OUT, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WE CONTINUE TO FIND
OURSELVES IN A TROUGH-Y PATTERN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING, GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
(50-70% CHANCE) FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
TERMINAL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 8-10KFT AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER
10KT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOJAVE BY THE AFTERNOON. ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP, WITH VARIABLE WINDS AROUND
10KT OR LESS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORMS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF KBIH,
WHERE GUSTY UP-VALLEY WINDS TO 25-35KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERIODIC GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THESE SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 20KT. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CEILINGS DROPPING TO 10-12KFT
BY MORNING ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN WHERE CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 20KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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