997
FXUS65 KVEF 090740
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1240 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOHAVE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY.
* AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TO FLUSH MOISTURE FROM THE REGION
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, LEAVING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FORMER HURRICANE
PRISCILLA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 270 MILES WNW
OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH TRACK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING NORTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA. ONCE THIS OCCURS,
PRISCILLA WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS A
WEAK TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THAT IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE AREA. PWS OF 1.50"-
1.75" WILL PUSH INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ACROSS MOHAVE, SOUTHERN
CLARK, AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH THE 1.00" LINE
STRETCHING AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL INYO ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE NUMBER AREN'T REALLY THAT CONCERNING DURING
MONSOON SEASON, BUT WITH OCTOBER GENERALLY BEING DRY, THESE NUMBERS
EQUATE TO 250-350% OF NORMAL. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INYO COUNTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIRES
MODELS INDICATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AND PUSH THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST. DUE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND ALL OF MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 10:00 AM PDT/MST
THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, HELPING TO CLEAR MOISTURE FROM THE REGION. IN ADDITION
TO HELPING US DRY OUT, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WE CONTINUE TO FIND
OURSELVES IN A TROUGH-Y PATTERN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING, GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
(50-70% CHANCE) FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
TERMINAL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 8-10KFT AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER
10KT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOJAVE BY THE AFTERNOON. ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP, WITH VARIABLE WINDS AROUND
10KT OR LESS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORMS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF KBIH,
WHERE GUSTY UP-VALLEY WINDS TO 25-35KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERIODIC GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THESE SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 20KT. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CEILINGS DROPPING TO 10-12KFT
BY MORNING ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN WHERE CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 20KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW/STESSMAN
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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