237
FXUS65 KVEF 090956
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
255 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOHAVE COUNTY, LINCOLN COUNTY,
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
* MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY.
* AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TO FLUSH MOISTURE FROM THE REGION
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, LEAVING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FORMER HURRICANE
PRISCILLA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 270 MILES WNW
OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH TRACK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING NORTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA. ONCE THIS OCCURS,
PRISCILLA WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS A
WEAK TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THAT IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE AREA. PWS OF 1.50"-
1.75" WILL PUSH INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ACROSS MOHAVE, SOUTHERN
CLARK, AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH THE 1.00" LINE
STRETCHING AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL INYO ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH OCTOBER GENERALLY BEING A DRY MONTH, THESE
NUMBERS EQUATE TO 250-350% OF NORMAL. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL
RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, WORKING
THEIR WAY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INYO COUNTY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HIRES MODELS INDICATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AND
PUSH THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. DUE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, MOHAVE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
FROM 10:00 AM PDT/MST THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, HELPING TO CLEAR MOISTURE FROM THE REGION. IN ADDITION
TO HELPING US DRY OUT, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WE CONTINUE TO FIND
OURSELVES IN A TROUGH-Y PATTERN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINAL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING, WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 8-10KFT BY MID
MORNING, WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10KT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL
BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY AS
MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA TRACKS NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN MOJAVE BY THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER/STORM AS CIGS COULD DROP AS LOW AS
5K FEET. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10KT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY
IN THE VICINITY OF KBIH, WHERE GUSTY UP-VALLEY WINDS TO 25-35KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERIODIC GUSTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THESE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20KT. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CEILINGS DROPPING TO
10-12KFT BY MORNING ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN WHERE CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 20KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW/STESSMAN
AVIATION...GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page