392
FXUS65 KVEF 091711
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1011 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOHAVE COUNTY, LINCOLN COUNTY,
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
* MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY.
* AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TO FLUSH MOISTURE FROM THE REGION
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, LEAVING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FORMER HURRICANE
PRISCILLA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 270 MILES WNW
OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH TRACK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING NORTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA. ONCE THIS OCCURS,
PRISCILLA WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS A
WEAK TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THAT IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE AREA. PWS OF 1.50"-
1.75" WILL PUSH INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ACROSS MOHAVE, SOUTHERN
CLARK, AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH THE 1.00" LINE
STRETCHING AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL INYO ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH OCTOBER GENERALLY BEING A DRY MONTH, THESE
NUMBERS EQUATE TO 250-350% OF NORMAL. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL
RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, WORKING
THEIR WAY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INYO COUNTY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HIRES MODELS INDICATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AND
PUSH THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. DUE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, MOHAVE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
FROM 10:00 AM PDT/MST THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, HELPING TO CLEAR MOISTURE FROM THE REGION. IN ADDITION
TO HELPING US DRY OUT, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WE CONTINUE TO FIND
OURSELVES IN A TROUGH-Y PATTERN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST VICINITY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY (70%) THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHEN ANY IMPACTS WILL
OCCUR, BUT BEST ODDS ARE BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z FRIDAY, AND THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHEN/IF CONVECTION REACHES THE TERMINAL, ERRATIC
GUSTS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE (50%). IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL,
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL YIELD CIGS AROUND 8-10KFT.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, ANTICIPATING EASTERLY WINDS 6-10
KNOTS TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SIMILAR STORY FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO PAHRUMP TO WESTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RELATIVELY FAST SO IMPACTS
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT TRAINING CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE COULD YIELD MORE PROLONGED
IMPACTS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ERRATIC GUSTS OF 15-25 KNOTS, BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN PRECIPITATION,
AND CIGS 8-10KFT. FARTHER NORTHWEST, DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OF 20-35 KNOTS ARE FORECAST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW/STESSMAN
AVIATION...WOODS
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