854
FXUS65 KVEF 092301
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
401 PM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY, LINCOLN COUNTY,
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
* MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
* AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TO FLUSH MOISTURE FROM THE REGION AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
LEAVING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE IN THE INCOMING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR: THIS
IS NOT ANOTHER HILARY. THE CIRCULATION FROM PRISCILLA WON'T EVEN
REACH OUR AREA, BUT IT'S MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED OFF AND
ADVECTED INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH THE CUTOFF BEING ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. GIVEN
THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE PRETTY QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, VERY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FOR MID-OCTOBER
WILL MAKE FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTION. GREATEST
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE PRECIPITATION CAN TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREA. MORNING HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ALONG A LINE GENERALLY FROM BARSTOW TO PAHRUMP TO
WESTERN/CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY, AND POTENTIALLY ALONG THE I-15
CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS EXPECTED LINE OF PRECIPITATION
AND SOME ENHANCEMENT VIA OROGRAPHIC LIFT, OPTED TO ADD THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS TO THE FLOOD WATCH. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, ANTICIPATING WAVES
OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
BY SATURDAY, A TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED GUSTY, SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO KICK THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LARGELY FOCUSED EAST OF LAS VEGAS.
BY SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL HAVE USHERED IN NOTABLY
DRIER AIR. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALL BELOW 10% AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO
BRING MORE TRADITIONAL COOL-SEASON PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH POPS BETWEEN 20-40%.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF AT LEAST VICINITY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
ARE LIKELY (70%) THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. HARD TO SAY
EXACTLY WHEN ANY IMPACTS WILL OCCUR, BUT BEST ODDS ARE BETWEEN NOW
AND 12Z FRIDAY, AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHEN/IF CONVECTION
REACHES THE TERMINAL, ERRATIC GUSTS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE (50%). IN ADDITION TO
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL YIELD CIGS AROUND 8-10KFT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES,
ANTICIPATING EASTERLY WINDS 6-10 KNOTS TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO PAHRUMP TO
WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RELATIVELY
FAST SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT
TRAINING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE COULD
YIELD MORE PROLONGED IMPACTS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ERRATIC GUSTS OF 15-
25 KNOTS, BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
PRECIPITATION, AND CIGS 8-10KFT. FARTHER NORTHWEST, DRY CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 20-35 KNOTS ARE FORECAST. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW, WITH PERHAPS A GREATER CONVECTIVE
FOCUS ON THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...WOODS
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