532
FXUS65 KVEF 100528
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1028 PM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY, LINCOLN COUNTY,
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
* MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
* AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TO FLUSH MOISTURE FROM THE REGION AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
LEAVING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE IN THE INCOMING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR: THIS
IS NOT ANOTHER HILARY. THE CIRCULATION FROM PRISCILLA WON'T EVEN
REACH OUR AREA, BUT IT'S MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED OFF AND
ADVECTED INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH THE CUTOFF BEING ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. GIVEN
THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE PRETTY QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, VERY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FOR MID-OCTOBER
WILL MAKE FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTION. GREATEST
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE PRECIPITATION CAN TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREA. MORNING HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ALONG A LINE GENERALLY FROM BARSTOW TO PAHRUMP TO
WESTERN/CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY, AND POTENTIALLY ALONG THE I-15
CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS EXPECTED LINE OF PRECIPITATION
AND SOME ENHANCEMENT VIA OROGRAPHIC LIFT, OPTED TO ADD THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS TO THE FLOOD WATCH. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, ANTICIPATING WAVES
OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
BY SATURDAY, A TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED GUSTY, SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO KICK THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LARGELY FOCUSED EAST OF LAS VEGAS.
BY SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL HAVE USHERED IN NOTABLY
DRIER AIR. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALL BELOW 10% AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO
BRING MORE TRADITIONAL COOL-SEASON PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH POPS BETWEEN 20-40%.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF AT LEAST VICINITY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ARE
LIKELY (50 TO 75%) THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL IS LOW. WHEN/IF CONVECTION REACHES THE TERMINAL, ERRATIC
GUSTS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL,
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL YIELD CIGS AROUND
8-10KFT. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SETTLING IN FROM A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION LATE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LINES OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY AND ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERRATIC GUSTS OF 15-25 KNOTS, BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION, AND
CIGS 8-10KFT. FARTHER NORTHWEST, DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-35 KNOTS ARE FORECAST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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