878
FXUS65 KVEF 050927
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
127 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A PASSING SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASED WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY, ALONG
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN SIERRA.
* OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM COMES ASHORE THIS MORNING IN THE PACNW. MORE OF
GLANCING BLOW, NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD, IMPACTFUL WINDS IN OUR
AREA. CHANCES FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS ARE BELOW 25% IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS THAT COULD SEE WIND IMPACTS TODAY.
THE FIRST IS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY. CHANCES FOR 55+
MPH WINDS IN THE SIERRA ARE HIGH (75%), WHILE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 40+ MPH GUSTS IN THE OWENS VALLEY ARE MORE OF A TOSS UP
(~50%). GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE SETUP, I BELIEVE THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT UNDERSTATED, THUS OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE OWENS VALLEY AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE
LOCALIZED AND MOST LIKELY IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE, BUT THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (10-20%) OF ISOLATED 55+ MPH GUSTS. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
TRAVEL ON US-395, PARTICULARLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES. ANOTHER
SPOT FOR POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS IS ALONG US-95 NEAR DESERT
ROCK/MERCURY. HERE, CHANCES FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS ARE AROUND 50%, BUT
THE VERY LOCALIZED NATURE PRECLUDES ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND THE WINDS, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE EASTERN SIERRA LATER TODAY, BUT WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 9000
FEET, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN BELOW 10%.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY, BUT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. THIS PERSISTS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRY AND CALMER CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
8KT OR LESS FOLLOWING DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 17-19Z BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25KT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OVER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 25KFT AGL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY SUNRISE, AND FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND
15KFT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME ELEVATED AND GUSTY, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT
COMMON. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KBIH WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AROUND 15-25 KNOTS, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO REACH THE
TERMINAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE DOES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BETWEEN 15-25KFT
AGL OVERSPREADING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND PERSISTING
AT BIH FOR THE DURATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...GORELOW
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